The flaw of averages why we underestimate risk in the face of uncertainty sam l savage jeff danziger harry m markowitz on amazoncom free shipping on qualifying offers a must read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact as the recent collapse on wall street shows. Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business government and our personal lives sam savages lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties i highly recommend the flaw of averages william j perry former us secretary of . This says author sam l savage is just one example of the flaw of averages but dont despair savage writes in the flaw of averages why we underestimate risk in the face of uncertainty. In the flaw of averages sam savage known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty along the way he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong on average in areas as diverse as healthcare accounting the war on terror and climate change. In the flaw of averages sa as the recent collapse on wall street shows we are often ill equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties whether they be next months sales next years costs or tomorrows stock price
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